Why Naira Could Boost Below N1,000/$1 Before End of 2026 - Otedola

Otedola


The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced that it is now operating at its full nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), a milestone that has drawn commendation from business leaders, including Chairman of First HoldCo, Femi Otedola, who expressed optimism that the development could push the naira below ₦1,000 to the dollar before year-end.


In a statement on Wednesday, the refinery said it reached full capacity after fully restoring and optimising its crude distillation unit (CDU) and motor spirit (MS) production block following scheduled maintenance.


The company described itself as the “first refinery in the world to attain this feat.”


On January 5, the refinery had announced that its CDU and residual fluid catalytic cracking (RFCC) units were undergoing routine maintenance. It said the units are now running at optimal performance, strengthening the steady-state operations of what it described as Africa’s largest oil refining facility.


“Following a scheduled maintenance exercise on the CDU and MS Block, the refinery has commenced an intensive 72-hour series of performance test runs in collaboration with licensor UOP,” the statement read.


It explained that the tests are designed to validate operational efficiency and confirm that all critical parameters meet global standards.


“During the recent festive period, the refinery supplied between 45–50 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily. With the CDU and MS Block now fully restored, the refinery is positioned to comfortably deliver up to 75 million litres of PMS to the domestic market as required,” the company said.


Commenting on the development, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Dangote Refinery, David Bird, said the seamless integration and strong performance of the units highlight the refinery’s advanced engineering and solid operational capabilities


“Our teams have demonstrated exceptional precision and expertise in stabilising both the CDU and MS Block, and we are pleased to see them functioning at optimal efficiency.


“This performance testing phase enables us to validate the entire plant under real operating conditions. We are confident that the refinery remains firmly on track to deliver consistent, world-class output.


“This milestone underscores the strength, reliability, and engineering quality that define our operations,” he said.


Bird added that the CDU and MS Block, comprising the naphtha hydrotreater, isomerisation unit, and reformer unit, are now operating steadily at their full nameplate capacity of 650,000 bpd.


He noted that all remaining processing units “will begin their respective performance test runs in Phase 2, scheduled to commence next week.”


The CEO reaffirmed the refinery’s commitment to producing high-quality refined products capable of transforming Nigeria’s energy landscape, eliminating import dependence, and positioning the country as a net exporter of petroleum products.


Reacting to the announcement in a post on his X account on Thursday, Otedola said the commencement of full domestic refining after decades of import dependence would significantly ease pressure on the foreign exchange market.


“I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below ₦1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach,” Otedola said.


He congratulated Aliko Dangote, founder of the refinery, on what he described as the “remarkable achievement of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaching its full 650,000 barrels per day capacity.”


“More importantly, it is transformational for Nigeria and Africa. Supplying up to 75 million litres of PMS daily changes our energy narrative and conserves foreign exchange,” he added.


Otedola further disclosed that Dangote has embarked on an additional $12 billion expansion project to increase refining capacity to 1.4 million bpd, alongside plans to produce 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of linear alkyl benzene for detergent production.


“Work has already commenced in earnest,” Otedola said, adding that “Nigeria is proud” of Dangote, whom he described as his brother.

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